Shockingly thick first yr ice between Barents Sea and the North Pole in mid-July

Reposted from Dr. Susan Crockford’s Polar Bear Science

Posted on July 29, 2019 |

In late June, one of the crucial highly effective icebreakers on this planet encountered such terribly thick ice on-route to the North Pole (with a polar bear specialist and deep-pocketed, Attenborough-class vacationers onboard) that it took a day and a half longer than anticipated to get there. Just a few weeks later, in mid-July, a Norwegian icebreaker additionally certain for the North Pole (with scientific researchers on board) was pressured to show again north of Svalbard when it unexpectedly encountered impenetrable pack ice.

A polar bear on hummocked sea ice in Franz Josef Land. Picture by Michael Hambrey, date not specified however estimated based mostly on tour dates to be 22 or 23 June 2019.

Apparently, the ice charts the Norwegian captain consulted confirmed ‘first yr ice‘ – ice that shaped the earlier fall, outlined as lower than 2 m thick (6.6 ft) – which is usually a lot damaged up by early summer season. Nonetheless, what he and his Russian colleague got here up towards was consolidated first yr pack ice as much as Three m thick (about 10 ft). Such thick first yr ice was not simply sudden however by definition, ought to have been unattainable.

Ice charts for the previous few years that estimate precise ice thickness (relatively than age) present ice >2 m thick east and/or simply north of Svalbard and across the North Poie is just not uncommon right now of yr.  This means that the propensity of navigational charts to make use of ice ‘age’ (e.g. first yr vs. multi-year) to explain ice situations may clarify the Norwegian captain getting caught off-guard by exceptionally thick first yr ice. It additionally offers an evidence for why the polar bear specialist onboard the Russian icebreaker later failed to elucidate that first yr ice of such stunning thickness was really extraordinary, not only a bit thicker than regular.

’50 Years of Victory’ voyage, 15-28 June

Polar bear specialist Thea Bechshoft, employees scientist for Polar Bears Worldwide, had a tough time explaining the astonishingly thick sea ice they had been experiencing to rich vacationers on a two-week journey aboard a Russian icebreaker certain for the North Pole from Murmansk – you may e book a berth your self subsequent yr at a price of ~US$30,000-90,000 per particular person (not counting the price of attending to Helsinki and again).

In her 24 July 2019 essay for PBI, she didn’t trouble to say simply how thick the pack ice actually it was and that it was first yr ice that ought to have been lower than 2 m thick. She ignored the truth that the huge nuclear-powered ’50 Years of Victory’ was able to plowing at some pace by way of ice 2.5m (9.2 ft) thick, which severely downplayed the importance of the highly effective ship struggling to make headway.  Though Bechshoft doesn’t say the place the thick ice was first encountered, it’s virtually actually whereas the ship was nonetheless within the southern Barents Sea between Svalbard and Franz Josef Land (as a result of such thick ice close to the North Pole wouldn’t have been stunning):

Earlier this summer season, as I leaned over the railing on the bow of our ship for a greater view of the ocean ice under, I heard a fellow traveler exclaim, with awe in his voice: “That’s some critical ice!” He was, in truth, so fascinated by the ice that he repeated this sentiment a number of occasions.

I discovered myself within the odd place of concurrently agreeing and disagreeing with him. If we solely appeared on the space we had been passing by way of throughout this explicit month and yr, what we noticed was certainly actually spectacular sea ice. In truth, the ocean ice we encountered was thick sufficient that reaching our vacation spot—the geographic North Pole—took roughly 1.5 days longer than we’d anticipated.

The change befell throughout a Quark Expedition journey that I used to be privileged to affix, touring on the nuclear icebreaker “50 Years of Victory” on a voyage from Murmansk in Russia to the North Pole. Whereas a lot of my time was spent sharing science and conservation info with passengers, I additionally used this distinctive alternative to spend so much of time observing the ocean ice as we moved by way of it on our technique to the best of the Excessive Arctic, 90° North.

“50 Years of Victory” is a robust ship of 75,000 horsepower whole and the best attainable ice score, however even she needed to again up and discover different routes by way of the ice once in a while. Nonetheless, if we have a look at the larger perspective as supplied to us by satellite tv for pc knowledge, the standing of the Arctic sea ice as a complete is in truth very removed from spectacular: not solely was the Arctic sea ice extent this summer season the second lowest on document, the ice can be getting progressively thinner.

…

Similar to my fellow passenger, most of us usually generally tend to guage the final state of issues on particular singular occasions, particularly if we skilled these occasions in particular person. For this reason satellite tv for pc knowledge and different historic sea ice information are extremely vital to ensure that us to determine the long-term tendencies of what’s occurring to the Arctic sea ice extent and thickness. With out long-term steady, neutral monitoring, we might develop into oblivious to the essential modifications brought about to the Arctic ecosystem by our warming local weather. This “blindness” to vary is also referred to as shifting baseline syndrome: Persistent, slowly degrading modifications in ecosystems might be extremely troublesome for us to note in the event that they occur over a interval of a number of a long time. That is true for the disappearance of the Arctic sea ice, but in addition for instance for the dwindling variety of bugs discovered across the globe. [my bold]

The view from the bow of the ship ’50 Years of Victory’. Picture by Dr. Thea Bechshoft. Date and precise location not specified however cruise dates put it someday between 16 and 26 June between the Barents Sea round Svalbard and the North Pole.

Crown Prince Haakon voyage 15 July

The Norwegian icebreaker ‘Kronprins Haakon‘ (Crown Prince Haakon), additionally certain for the North Pole, needed to flip again on 15 July as a result of sea ice as much as Three m thick (virtually 10 ft). Based mostly on a Norwegian information report, the weblog Ice Age Now reported 16 July 2019:

Thick one-year ice mixed with giant batches of multi-year ice joined collectively into highly effective helmets, and a number of other of those are impenetrable to us, stated Captain Johnny Peder Hansen.

The ice is as much as three meters (virtually 10 ft) thick in the course of July, and never even the researchers’ lengthy special-purpose chainsaws had been in a position to penetrate the ice.

…

“In the course of July we see few indicators of thawing and that spring has come. We had anticipated extra melting and that the ice was extra disintegrating, ”says Captain Hansen, who for a number of a long time has labored on numerous vessels within the Arctic. [my bold]

Sea ice thickness charts

Whereas it might be that ice extent this yr has declined to low ranges relative to 1979 – because it has accomplished since 2007 with none acceleration – the ice chart under issued by the Danish Meteorological Institute (for 19 June and 15 July, dates related to the icebreaker journeys mentioned above) exhibits thick ice higher than 2m (turquois-green, inexperienced and yellow) extending from Svalbard within the Barents Sea to the North Pole (900N). If ice proven on these charts as ‘1.5-Three.5’ m thick appeared as ‘first yr ice’ on navigational charts or stories (reminiscent of issued by the North American Ice Service, summer season 2019 outlook right here), the intense thickness would have introduced a stunning navigational problem to the icebreaker captains.

The icebreaker ‘50 Years of Victory‘ out of Murmansk struggled by way of thick ice (above chart) alongside a route between Svalbard and the Franz Josef Land archipelago (see route map under) and reached the geographic North Pole a day and a half later than scheduled on the 19th or 20th of June.  The ship stopped at Franz Josef Land on the return journey to Murmansk, the place many polar bears had been seen.

A number of weeks later, the Norwegian icebreaker ‘Crown Prince Haakon‘ traveled by way of thick first yr ice north of the west coast of the Svalbard archipelago (ice chart under) in direction of the North Pole however needed to flip again on 15th July.

Whereas Bechshoft makes it sound like thick ice is a uncommon occurance in June within the Barents Sea and across the North Pole, in truth ice of such thickness has been comparatively widespread (particularly close to the North Pole) in recent times (see charts under).  For instance, in 2015 (see chart under), many of the ice within the Barents Sea between Svalbard and Franz Josef Land was even thicker than this yr at mid-June:

Actually, solely 2012 had really vast expanses of skinny first yr ice within the Barents Sea that prolonged in direction of the North Pole:

Nonetheless, first yr ice that’s Three m thick is certainly a uncommon occurance, particularly within the southern Barents Sea.

In different phrases, the suggestion that this early summer season’s exceptionally thick ice within the japanese Arctic and Barents Sea is so uncommon as to qualify as a “singular” occasion is nonsense however it’s uncommon – and might be important – to come across such exceptionally thick first yr ice within the southern Barents Sea and simply north of Svalbard. The propensity of navigational charts to make use of ice age relatively than ice thickness to explain ice situations virtually actually explains the Norwegian icebreaker captain getting caught off-guard by exceptionally thick first yr ice as a result of first yr ice Three m thick merely mustn’t exist.

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