The E book That NOAA Ought to Have Printed: Extremes and Averages in Contiguous U.S. Local weather
New local weather knowledge reference ebook presents knowledge that NOAA doesn’t.
Graphs of 100 Years of NOAA Contiguous U.S. Local weather Knowledge (2018 Version) – A E book That NOAA Ought to Have Printed
Visitor Put up by Bob Tisdale
I’ve simply printed a brand new ebook titled Extremes and Averages in Contiguous U.S. Local weather. It’s only accessible by way of Amazon HERE in paperback kind (400+ pages, 8½ x 11). The value is $57.21. I’ve no plans to publish an e-book version.
Extremes and Averages in Contiguous U.S. Local weather is meant for all U.S. residents who’re critical about their data-based understandings of local weather change within the Contiguous United States as a complete and regionally, and for its particular person 48 states. Additional, even for those who don’t agree with the NOAA knowledge, it’s best to at the very least perceive the tales their knowledge inform.
The supply of the information used to create the graphs in Extremes and Averages in Contiguous U.S. Local weather is the NOAA Nationwide Knowledge Middle Local weather Knowledge On-line (NNDC CDO) web site.
OVERVIEW FROM EXTREMES AND AVERAGES IN CONTIGUOUS U.S. CLIMATE (Brackets embrace notes for this weblog submit.)
This ebook presents time-series graphs of NOAA local weather knowledge for the USA. Extra particularly, for the 100-year interval of 1919 to 2018, this ebook presents time-series comparability graphs of the very best of the month-to-month highs per yr and the bottom of the month-to-month lows per yr—the extremes—and in addition the averages per yr for NOAA:
Precipitation (PCP) knowledge (offered in inches),
Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) knowledge, and
Close to-surface air temperature (TMAX, TAVG, & TMIN) knowledge (offered in levels Fahrenheit)…
…for the Contiguous United States as a complete, for the 9 NOAA Local weather Areas of the Contiguous United States proven in Determine Overview-1, and for the 48 (contiguous) States individually. The info are offered of their noticed types (or calculated kind within the case of the drought knowledge), not as anomalies. The extremes and averages had been extracted by MS EXCEL from NOAA month-to-month knowledge from January 1919 to December 2018.
Moreover, there are comparability graphs of the annual cycles in near-surface air temperatures, based mostly on 30-year averages of the month-to-month values—the primary 30 years of that 100-year interval (1919-1948) versus its final 30 years (1989-2018)—for every of the temperature metrics (TAVG, TMIN, and TMAX). These are supplied to indicate readers how the annual cycles in floor temperatures (based mostly on common month-to-month temperatures) have modified between these two time intervals. These comparability graphs of the annual temperature cycles are supplied for every state, every area and for the Contiguous U.S. as a complete.
One other Function of this ebook:
NOAA ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TEMPERATURE DATA
After the Introduction, the graph shows start with the changes NOAA has made to the typical temperature (TAVG) knowledge for the contiguous United States and for every of the 9 NOAA local weather areas. At their web site, NOAA is open in regards to the changes they’ve made to the near-surface air temperature knowledge. This ebook can be incomplete with out illustrations of the results of these changes. To that finish, I current graphs that examine the present editions and the 1984 editions of the annual imply near-surface air temperature (TAVG) knowledge for the Contiguous United States as a complete and for the 9 NOAA U.S. Local weather areas. The 1984 editions of the typical near-surface air temperature knowledge are being offered as the information earlier than the changes. These older knowledge had been discovered within the 1984 paper Regional and Nationwide Month-to-month, Seasonal, and Annual Temperature Weighted by Space, 1895-1983 by Karl and Koss. The paper will be discovered right here: (https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/10238).
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After the introductory explanations, the information shows are made with out remark from me.
The NOAA web site that served because the supply of the information on this ebook is the NOAA Nationwide Knowledge Middle Local weather Knowledge On-line (NNDC CDO) web site.
https://www7.ncdc.noaa.gov/CDO/CDODivisionalSelect.jsp#
The interval of 1919 to 2018 was chosen for 2 easy causes. First, it covers the final 100 full years of knowledge, and, as such, nobody can realistically declare that I’ve cherry picked the beginning and finish years. Second, the tendencies are proven in models per decade, so readers solely must multiply the development listed on the graphs by ten to find out how a lot the metric has modified in these 100 years based mostly on the linear development.
The 9 NOAA Local weather Areas are proven in Determine Overview-1. They embrace:
Northeast Area (consists of the states of Connecticut, Delaware, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, and Vermont)
East North Central Area (consists of the states of Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin)
Central Area (consists of the states of Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Missouri, Ohio, Tennessee, and West Virginia)
Southeast Area (consists of the states of Alabama, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Virginia)
West North Central Area (consists of the states of Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wyoming)
South Area (consists of the states of Arkansas, Kansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Oklahoma, and Texas)
Southwest Area (consists of the states of Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, and Utah)
Northwest (consists of the states of Idaho, Oregon, and Washington)
West Area (consists of the states of California, and Nevada)
[Reference link for blog post here.]
Determine Overview-1
IMPORTANT NOTE: I’m not and have by no means been an worker of NOAA or every other U.S. authorities company. I’m an unbiased local weather researcher and knowledge presenter. On-line, I’ve been presenting graphs of climate-related knowledge for greater than a decade—hundreds of graphs—at my weblog ClimateObservations and on the World’s Most Seen Web site on World Warming and Local weather Change, which is a weblog known as WattsUpWithThat. [Finish notice.]
The info that serves because the supply for the graphs contained on this ebook are recognized on the NOAA Nationwide Knowledge Middle Local weather Knowledge On-line (NNDC CDO) web site as:
PCP – Precipitation Index
PDSI – Palmer Drought Severity Index
TAVG – Temperature Index
TMIN – Minimal Temperature Index
TMAX – Most Temperature Index
OTHER DATASETS AVAILABLE AT THE NOAA NNDC CDO WEBSITE BUT NOT INCLUDED IN THIS BOOK
For these , along with the datasets listed above which can be offered on this ebook, the output pages of the NOAA Local weather Knowledge On-line web site embrace quite a few different climate-related datasets, that are listed beneath:
PHDI – Palmer Hydrological Drought Index
ZNDX – Palmer Z-Index
PMDI – Modified Palmer Drought Severity Index
CDD – Cooling Diploma Days
HDD – Heating Diploma Days, and
SPnn – Customary Precipitation Index
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Be aware: When you haven’t but bought this ebook and are studying this overview on-line or in a bookstore, you could be asking your self, Why ought to I purchase this ebook, after I can take a look at climate-data graphs free of charge on the NOAA Local weather at a Look web site after which obtain the graphs and associated knowledge for my very own information?
The first cause to purchase this ebook as an alternative of going to the NOAA Local weather at a Look web site is that this ebook presents local weather extremes in methods the NOAA web site doesn’t. Particularly, the NOAA Local weather at a Look web site doesn’t extract and illustrate the acute values per yr (the very best of the month-to-month values per yr and the bottom of the month-to-month values per yr) for the Precipitation knowledge and Palmer Drought Severity Index knowledge as this ebook does. Moreover, whereas the NOAA Local weather at a Look web site does present and illustrate month-to-month excessive temperature (TMAX) knowledge and month-to-month low temperature (TMIN) knowledge, it doesn’t extract and present the acute values of these metrics per yr (the very best of the month-to-month highs for the TMAX knowledge per yr and the bottom of the month-to-month lows of the TMIN knowledge per yr), however this ebook does current them and their linear tendencies.
[End note.]
Remember that annual averages are based mostly on 12 months of knowledge every year, whereas solely two months per yr are chosen for the annual extremes (one for the very best excessive and one for the bottom low), and, as everybody is aware of, there will be massive modifications in precipitation, drought circumstances, and temperatures each month. Thus, the extremes are vital, and they don’t at all times comply with the averages. That is very true for the temperature extremes, which on this ebook are represented by the very best month-to-month excessive temperatures per yr and the bottom month-to-month low temperatures per yr, not by the very best and lowest values per yr of the typical temperatures.
Moreover, modifications in precipitation, drought severity and near-surface air temperatures differ from NOAA local weather area to NOAA local weather area and from state to state—even neighboring states—in ways in which could shock you.
The Introduction, which follows [not in this blog post], features a full set of graphs based mostly on the information for the Contiguous United States. As a result of they’re vital, I’ve included the graphs for the Contiguous United States once more close to the top of the ebook as properly.
By the best way, it was the shortcoming to extract and present the acute values per yr (highest of the month-to-month highs and lowest of the month-to-month lows per yr) in graph kind on the NOAA Local weather at a Look web site that prompted me to arrange this assortment of graphs of NOAA knowledge for the contiguous U.S. Many individuals, like me, are extra concerned with local weather extremes than they’re in averages.
In my expertise, the NOAA Nationwide Knowledge Middle Local weather Knowledge On-line (NNDC CDO) web site is way quicker than the NOAA Local weather at a Look web site, the latter of which will be very gradual at occasions…so gradual it discourages efforts to review local weather knowledge. The NOAA Nationwide Knowledge Middle Local weather Knowledge On-line (NNDC CDO) web site labored shortly (inside seconds) every time I clicked on Submit, and it offered all datasets on one textual content output sheet, which drastically shortened my data-download time whereas making ready this ebook.
My apologies to the residents of Alaska and Hawaii, however the NOAA web site used because the supply of knowledge for this ebook doesn’t provide knowledge for Hawaii, and the information are incomplete for Alaska throughout the interval of 1919 to 2018.
[END OF OVERVIEW PREVIEW]
SAMPLE GRAPHS
The next are examples of the 6 graphs offered in Extremes and Averages in Contiguous U.S. Local weather for the Contiguous United States as a complete, for every of the 9 NOAA local weather areas that make up the Contiguous U.S., and for every of the 48 Contiguous U.S. states individually. The examples are for the State of Vermont.
Why did I exploit Vermont for the samples? I didn’t wish to be accused of cherry-picking examples to assist a perspective, and the information for Vermont didn’t current something extraordinary both approach.
The numbering of the pattern graphs coincides with the numbering of the datasets on the NOAA NNDC CDO web site, which is the supply of the information for the graphs offered in Extremes and Averages in Contiguous U.S. Local weather. The lettering was chosen by me and stays fixed all through the shows.
Determine-43a
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Determine-43b
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Determine-43c
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Determine-43d
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Determine-43e
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Determine-43f
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An instance of a graph that presents the TAVG knowledge and corresponding tendencies earlier than and after NOAA made changes to them will be seen in Determine Outdated v Present TAVG Knowledge-6, which is for the NOAA South local weather area. The South local weather area consists of the States of Arkansas, Kansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Oklahoma, and Texas. Within the ebook, these comparability graphs are supplied for every of the 9 NOAA local weather areas of the Contiguous U.S. and for the Contiguous U.S. as a complete, they usually cowl the interval of 1919 (the beginning yr of the graphs on this ebook) to 1983 (the final full yr of knowledge from the 1984 NOAA paper Regional and Nationwide Month-to-month, Seasonal, and Annual Temperature Weighted by Space, 1895-1983 by Karl and Koss, which is the supply of the older TAVG knowledge.
Determine Outdated v Present TAVG Knowledge-6
Just like the samples above for Vermont, I chosen the South area for this instance as a result of it didn’t present something extraordinary, both approach. That’s, the South area is near middle-of-the-road based mostly on the impacts of the NOAA changes to the TAVG linear tendencies throughout this era. Alternatively, for the interval of 1919-1983, out of the 9 NOAA local weather areas of the contiguous U.S., the South area has the smallest (downward) offset in TAVG temperature between the older version knowledge and the present (adjusted) version, solely -Zero.eight deg F, with the older version knowledge subtracted from present.
Moreover, for the interval of 1919-1983, and for the contiguous U.S. and its 9 NOAA local weather areas, this ebook additionally consists of (1) a comparability graph of the variations between the tendencies of the previous and present TAVG knowledge, with the older knowledge subtracted from the present knowledge, and (2) a desk that, for every area and the contiguous U.S. as a complete, exhibits (a) the tendencies of the TAVG knowledge earlier than and after the changes together with their variations and (b) the typical TAVG temperatures and offset in TAVG temperatures for the interval of earlier than and after the changes, once more with the older knowledge subtracted from the present knowledge.
When you’ve assumed NOAA’s changes to the TAVG knowledge have impacted all areas equally, you’ve assumed incorrectly.
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ONE GRAPH PER PAGE
As famous within the opening paragraph of this submit, Extremes and Averages in Contiguous U.S. Local weather is greater than 400 pages lengthy, and it’s printed on eight ½ x 11 paper. Why 400+ pages? For the graph shows of the NOAA knowledge, every graph is offered on a separate web page, with sufficient area within the margins in your hand-written notes. See Picture-1.
Picture-1 (Click on to Enlarge)
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A FEW NOTES FROM THE INTRODUCTION ABOUT THE GRAPHS
…not all areas and states present three quasi-parallel development traces for the typical and two extremes of their respective Palmer Drought Severity Index knowledge like these proven in [Figure 43b for this blog post].
You’ll notice on the extremes and common comparability graphs that I’ve additionally left the trend-line equations created by MS EXCEL. That was accomplished for 2 causes. First, some readers could wish to calculate the values of the development traces at any yr from 1919 to 2018, and the tendencies line equations will permit them to take action. Second, together with the development line equations on the graphs helps to guarantee readers that the tendencies I listed in color-coded boldface are the tendencies calculated by MS EXCEL. You’ll additionally notice that the values of the tendencies within the EXCEL trend-line equations are offered per yr, however I record them on the graphs as per decade.
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If isolating the very best and lowest Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) knowledge per yr from the typical per yr is new to you, take into account this: (1) the very best annual PDSI knowledge is beneficial for evaluating wettest intervals, and, (2) the bottom annual PDSI knowledge is beneficial for evaluating driest drought intervals.
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IMPORTANT NOTE ABOUT TRENDS
For the Precipitation (PCP) and Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) knowledge, don’t count on that the tendencies for annual maximums and minimums to common out to equal the development for the annual averages. The annual averages take into account 12 months per yr, whereas the annual maximums and minimums look at just one month every per yr.
Equally, don’t count on the development for the annual common temperature (TAVG) knowledge to equal the typical of (1) the development of the annual highest of the excessive temperatures (that are extracted from the TMAX knowledge) and (2) the development of the annual lowest of the low temperatures (that are extracted from the TMIN knowledge). The annual common of the TAVG knowledge considers 12 months per yr, whereas the annual most of the TMAX knowledge and annual minimal of the TMIN knowledge look at just one month every per yr.
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The info furnished at that NOAA NNDC CDO web site don’t embrace uncertainties, so uncertainties usually are not proven on the graphs on this ebook. That’s in line with the NOAA Local weather at a Look web site, which additionally excludes uncertainties with the tendencies it presents. See the pattern output graph from the NOAA Local weather at a Look web site in Determine Intro-19 to verify that they don’t embrace uncertainties of their graphs there.
Determine Intro-19
CURIOSITIES
There are a selection of curiosities within the NOAA knowledge offered in Extremes and Averages in Contiguous U.S. Local weather. Prime examples exist within the annual cycle comparability graphs for the Minimal Temperature (TMIN) knowledge for 3 states: New Jersey, New York, and Pennsylvania. (A pattern of that sort of graph is proven above in Determine 43e.) Usually, for each 30-year intervals, the typical February TMIN temperature is noticeably increased than the January TMIN temperature. However, for these three states, throughout the early 30-year interval of 1919-1948, the January and February TMIN temperatures are so shut, the graph’s curve between them seems to be flat. In different phrases, for the interval of 1919-1948, the 30-year averages of the acute low temperatures for these three states had been very comparable in January and February. In a few weeks, I could put together a weblog submit about that prolonged lowest-of-the-low TMIN temperatures phenomenon.
DATA HAVE BEEN ARCHIVED
Simply in case there are noticeable modifications to the information on the NOAA Nationwide Knowledge Middle Local weather Knowledge On-line (NNDC CDO) web site sooner or later, I’ve uploaded to one of many on-line archives the entire NOAA NNDC CDO knowledge pages I relied on after I ready the graphs for this ebook.
PLEASE DO NOT COPY ANY OF THE GRAPHS FROM THIS BOOK FOR ANY REASON
Sufficient mentioned on that topic.
The exceptions to that request, after all, are the graphs that had been offered on this submit and solely these graphs.
CLOSING TO POST
In 2018, I additionally ready an e-book for these of you interested by:
the variety of hurricanes that make landfall right here within the continental United States,
the variety of tornados that landing within the Contiguous U.S.,
flood knowledge for the states, and
wildfire knowledge, too.
I made these knowledge shows in my Kindle e-book brief story titled Dad, Is Local weather Getting Worse in the USA?. The subtitle of that brief story is E book 2 within the DAD, WHY ARE YOU A GLOBAL WARMING DENIER? Series.
I think a lot of you’re considering that Extremes and Averages in Contiguous U.S. Local weather would make an excellent present for politicians who sound very confused about local weather change right here in the USA…and in addition for members of the family and associates for a similar cause. I agree.
Once more, Extremes and Averages in Contiguous U.S. Local weather will be bought by way of Amazon HERE in paperback kind (400+ pages, eight ½ x 11).
Thanks very a lot to those that have bought or will buy Extremes and Averages in Contiguous U.S. Local weather.
Regards,
Bob Tisdale
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