Ryrkaypiy ‘over-run’ by >50 polar bears might be attributable to extra Chukchi Sea bears

From Polar Bear Science

Posted on December 5, 2019 |

A scary-sounding headline from the BBC at present screams “Ryrkaypiy: Far-north Russian village overrun by polar bears“. Some research would have proven (as I do beneath) that this form of occasion will not be uncommon for this village, there may be enough sea ice off the coast to permit polar bears to hunt for seals in the event that they select to take action, and the photographs offered don’t help the declare that nearly all the polar bears “gave the impression to be skinny” (see photograph beneath and others). Related incidents occurred in 2013 and 2006. Growing numbers of Chukchi Sea polar bears is essentially the most believable rationalization for the current abundance of bears at this village.

BBC headline, 5 December 2019. Does that appear to be rubbish these fats bears are feeding on or the frozen stays of useless walruses on the base of the Cape Schmidt cliff?

Location of Ryrkaypiy, as offered by the BBC.

Current scientific research have proven Chukchi Sea polar bears are in glorious situation and reproducing nicely regardless of current declines in summer season sea ice and there’s no scientific proof that this example modified markedly this yr (Adam et al. 2019; AC SWG 2018; Regehr et al. 2018; Rode et al. 2014, 2018). The most recent survey estimated about three,000 bears within the Chukchi Sea. Quite the opposite, there may be each purpose to recommend that extra polar bears visiting Chukotka settlements lately is because of rising numbers of bears – as I prompt earlier this yr for the rising issues with bears in Labrador. In different phrases, as was true within the 1980s, seeing extra bears typically means there are extra bears.

Apparently, the BBC merely passes alongside all sensational claims made by WWF personel with none truth checking in any respect (5 December 2019), not even to press the informants to supply exact dates for these occasions (my daring):

“Greater than 50 polar bears have descended on a village in Russia’s far north.

All public actions in Ryrkaypiy, in Chukotka area, have been cancelled, and colleges are being guarded to guard residents from the bears.

Conservationists say local weather change might be responsible, with weak coastal ice forcing the bears to seek for meals within the village reasonably than at sea.

The animals had been “each grownup and younger… there have been females with cubs of various ages”, she mentioned – including that the majority of them gave the impression to be skinny.

…

The polar bears usually stay on Cape Schmidt, simply 2.2 km (1.four miles) from Ryrkaypiy.

WWF conservationist Mikhail Stishov mentioned the world had been experiencing unusually heat climate.

“If the ice had been robust sufficient the bears, or a minimum of a few of them, would have already gone to sea, the place they might hunt for seals or sea hares,” he mentioned.”

…

Anatoly Kochnev instructed Tass information company that polar bear visits are more and more frequent – and that simply 5 years in the past [2014], solely about 5 bears bought near the village.

“I as a scientist imagine [Ryrkaypiy village] shouldn’t stay there,” he mentioned. “We attempt to management the scenario, however no one would wish to suppose what might occur there in three to 5 years.”

Biologist Anatoly Kochnev, described on this items as “a polar bear specialist from the US-based Institute of the North” – i.e. the Institute of Organic Issues of the North – is similar Russian native who acted as scientific advisor to the Netflix movie crew that lied about polar bears being concerned within the deaths of walrus falling from a excessive cliff close to Ryrkaypiy (see posts right here, right here, right here, and right here) and who earlier this week claimed dire penalties will certainly come to a polar bear with the quantity “T-34” spray-painted on its aspect just lately noticed in Chukotka by WWF members stationed there. Referring to some extent solely 5 years in the past when there have been few bears (2014) is a handy bench mark that permits him to disregard the truth that the yr earlier than that, in 2013, the village had greater than 40 bears to deal with, and that in 2006 there was additionally a big inflow of bears (particulars beneath).

Current historical past of polar bears at Ryrkaypiy

Ryrkaypiy is positioned the bottom of a spit the place walrus herds have congregated each few years within the fall, since a minimum of 2007. Walrus numbers are approach up in comparison with what they had been within the 1990s and the scale of herds which have come ashore lately have been reasonably astonishing. The map beneath exhibits the city (the place the “Google” label sits) just a bit over a mile from the cliffs the place the notorious Netflix and BBC walrus movies had been shot in 2017 (oddly, this isn’t talked about on this newest BBC piece). A mile is nothing for a polar bear: bears that ‘usually’ hang around on the spit are shut sufficient to the village to trigger bother if they’re so inclined.

Right here’s one other view of the village, as seen from the spit suffering from walrus carcasses (moved round by storms), taken on 27 September 2017 by Chukotka resident Yevgeny Basov :

In 2013, “greater than 40” polar bears had been reported to be threatening Ryrkaypiy residents as a result of they had been drawn to 2 whale carcasses washed ashore close by:

“Bear scare: Crowds of polar predators ‘besiege’ Russian Far East city“(11 November 2013):

“Forty-three predators have gathered collectively close to the village of Ryrkaypy, in accordance with WWF Russia. Polar bears had been noticed close to the stays of two useless whales, washed onto the seashores a number of kilometers away from the Chukotka settlement.

“The final time a lot of polar bears gathered in a single place was found on the Arctic coast of Chukotka within the fall of 2006,” head of the Polar Bear Patrol WWF undertaking Viktor Nikiforov mentioned.”

On-line information outlet Gizmodo reported in late October 2017:

“…Ryrkaypiy, a tiny village positioned on the northern coast of Chukotka bordering the Chukchi Sea. In line with a report by the Siberian Instances, 5,000 walruses just lately hauled out on a shoreline close to the village. The walruses had been adopted by about 20 polar bears, little question drawn by the stench of hundreds of blubbery, flippered meals.

The arrival of the bears triggered the walruses to panic, and lots of tried to
flee. Per the Siberian Instances, “a number of hundred” fell to their deaths off the cliffs of the close by Kozhevnikova Cape. The bears, naturally, went to city on the carcasses.”

In 2007, polar bears descended on the village after an enormous herd of 40,000 walrus frolicked on the spit that fall, leaving greater than 500 carcasses on native seashores from animals that had died naturally from falls or trampling. Later that fall, a Swedish WWF conservation officer named Tom Arnbom frolicked in Ryrkaypiy and on a weblog publish dated 28 November, predicted that polar bears would trigger numerous bother over the primary few weeks of December as they moved in to feed on the carcasses.

Sea ice situations in Chukotka

Sea ice charts from NSIDC Masie present that as of four December 2019 (the date of the BBC article) there was sea ice alongside the Chukotka coast. The archives present it has been there for weeks. It’s not a large expanse of ice however much like the strip of newly-formed ice that kinds alongside Hudson Bay which permits polar bears there to renew looking within the fall. Polar bears want an ice-edge to hunt seals, not miles of unbroken ice. Ryrkaypiy is simply east of the W180th parallel marked on the map that transects Wrangel Island.

Masie sea ice chart for four December 2019.

And was sea ice missing alongside that coast in early November 2013, when greater than 40 bears beseiged the village? Completely not, because the map beneath exhibits (for the 11 November, date of the information report):

Masie sea ice chart for 11 November 2013.

Backside line: This yr’s occasion was not markedly totally different from the inflow of bears that terrorized the village in 2013 and 2006. Lack of sea ice attributable to human-caused international warming will not be inflicting rising numbers of polar bears to congregate round Ryrkaypiy within the late fall. A mix of accelerating numbers of bears plus an abundance of walrus which have died of pure causes earlier within the yr are nearly definitely the proximate trigger. Carcasses of walrus and useless whales are a beautiful supply of meals for polar bears who should replenish fats they’ve misplaced over the summer season earlier than the chilly and darkness of winter units in.  These sources of fats are simply as helpful to bears for that goal as seals, simply simpler to entry. Sensible bears.

References

AC SWG 2018. Chukchi-Alaska polar bear inhabitants demographic parameter estimation. Eric Regehr, Scientific Working Group (SWG. Report of the Proceedings of the 10th assembly of the Russian-American Fee on Polar Bears, 27-28 July 2018), pg. 5. Printed 30 July 2018. US Fish and Wildlife Service.

Adam, R., Bryan, A., Quakenbush, L., Crawford, J., and Biderman, L. 2019. Bearded seal productiveness in Alaska utilizing harvest-based monitoring, 1975-2016. Poster presentation, Alaska Marine Science Symposium, 28 January-1 February.

Regehr, E.V., Hostetter, N.J., Wilson, R.R., Rode, Okay.D., St. Martin, M., Converse, S.J. 2018. Built-in inhabitants modeling gives the primary empirical estimates of significant charges and abundance for polar bears within the Chukchi Sea. Scientific Experiences eight (1) DOI: 10.1038/s41598-018-34824-7 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-018-34824-7

Rode, Okay.D., Regehr, E.V., Douglas, D., Durner, G., Derocher, A.E., Thiemann, G.W., and Budge, S. 2014. Variation within the response of an Arctic prime predator experiencing habitat loss: feeding and reproductive ecology of two polar bear populations. World Change Biology 20(1):76-88. http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.12339/summary

Rode, Okay. D., R. R. Wilson, D. C. Douglas, V. Muhlenbruch, T.C. Atwood, E. V. Regehr, E.S. Richardson, N.W. Pilfold, A.E. Derocher, G.M Durner, I. Stirling, S.C. Amstrup, M. S. Martin, A.M. Pagano, and Okay. Simac. 2018. Spring fasting habits in a marine apex predator gives an index of ecosystem productiveness. World Change Biology http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.13933/full

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