Rutgers College International Snow Lab and “the Snows of Yesteryear”

Visitor “geologist tag-teaming” by David Middleton

It is a comply with as much as Gregory Wrightstone’s article from yesterday. A few the primary few feedback jogged my memory that I’ve been which means to put in writing a submit on the Rutgers College International Snow Lab and what their information has to say about “the snows of yesteryear” and the fake local weather disaster du jour.

First the feedback:

Second, Loydo

Whereas it seems that Greenland has misplaced about zero.four% of its ice mass since 1900, that loss started on the finish of the Little Ice Age, the coldest climatic episode of the Holocene Epoch.

Ice mass losses from 2002-2017 have been estimated from gravity information obtained by the GRACE satellites.

The GRACE measurements upon which the accelerating ice loss claims are based mostly are closely depending on the Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA). Whereas not as massive as Antarctica (the place the GIA’s margin of error is almost as massive because the asserted ice loss), GIA variations may end up in completely totally different ice loss values… And the GRACE time collection isn’t any longer than the MODIS time collection.

Wu et al., 2010 decided that the GIA generally assumed for Greenland was manner too excessive and that the 2002-2008 ice loss fee was 104 Gt/yr slightly than the oft cited 230 Gt/yr. Even at 230 Gt/yr, it will take 1,000 years for Greenland to lose 5% of its ice mass.

Riva et al., 2007 concluded that the ice mass-loss fee in Antarctica from 2002-2007 might have been anyplace from zero-point-zero Gt/yr as much as 120 Gt/yr. Dr. Riva lately co-authored a paper in GRL (Thomas et al., 2011) which concluded that GPS observations counsel “that modeled or empirical GIA uplift indicators are sometimes over-estimated” and that “the spatial sample of secular ice mass change derived from Gravity Restoration and Local weather Experiment (GRACE) information and GIA fashions could also be unreliable, and that a number of latest secular Antarctic ice mass loss estimates are systematically biased, primarily too excessive.”

So… We’ve barely 15 years price of information and no concept if the latest mass losses are anomalous relative to the early 20th century Arctic warming, Medieval Heat Interval or any of the opposite millennial-scale Holocene warming intervals.

In 2017 the Greenland ice sheet appeared to have gained mass. The GRACE mission led to 2017; so we don’t know what it’s accomplished since then

The ice mass estimates ostensibly have in mind:

Mass misplaced to iceberg calving.Floor Mass Steadiness (SMB).

The “humorous” factor is that icebergs have a tricky time calving if outlet glaciers aren’t advancing towards the ocean. Glacial “dropstones” are geological proof of previous “ice home” climates. Dropstones are boulders and enormous rocks which are carried out to sea by icebergs. When the icebergs soften, the boulders drop to the underside of the ocean. Elevated calving of icebergs is proof for colder climates from “Snowball Earth” proper up till Al Gore invented Gorebal Warming.

SMB is the online distinction of snow accumulation and ablation. The Greenland Ice Sheet has had optimistic SMB (gained ice) over the past four years. Extra snow has gathered than ice has melted.

Right here’s one other odd factor about Greenland:

Determine 1. Greenland snow cowl has elevated since 1967.

Greenland’s summer time snow cowl has elevated since 1967. The winter snow cowl can’t enhance very a lot. It’s normally near 100%.

Third, on to Steve Mosher

Steven Mosher January 30, 2020 at 10:20 pm Edit

what does the science say about winter snow ( your january chart) .

Not like spring and summer time snow that’s predicted to FALL below warming eventualities
Winter snow might INCREASE in sure areas and reduce in others. understanding why is straightforward for most individuals.

Regardless of the snow does, it’s going to have been predicted by the local weather fashions? Or did I learn that mistaken?

Let’s look at what Northern Hemisphere snow has been as much as since “The Ice Age Cometh?”

Determine 2. Northern Hemisphere snow cowl since 1972. trailing 12-month common. I began in 1972 as a result of a lot of the summer time information in 1968, 1969 and 1971 is lacking.

It does seem that for the Northern Hemisphere, as a complete, it was just a little snowier from 1972-1988 than it has been since then. Nevertheless, the snow cowl in 2019 was the identical because it was when “The Ice Age Cometh?” Though it does appear that Leonard Nimoy went In Search Of “The Subsequent Ice Age” at simply the suitable time. 1978 was one of many snowiest years in Connecticut that I can keep in mind. Relating to a significant development, are you able to say: R² = zero.0604?

Now let’s break it down.

The GSL supplies weekly and month-to-month information units for numerous Northern Hemisphere areas:

I downloaded the month-to-month information units for N. Hemisphere, N. America and N. America (no Greenland). I calculated the Greenland snow cowl utilizing this equation:

N. America – N. America (no Greenland) = Greenland

Within the graphs to comply with, North America contains Greenland. North America is a subset of Northern Hemisphere and Greenland is a subset of North America.

It seems that Mr. Wrightstone was appropriate about winter.

Determine three. Winter (Dec., Jan., Feb.) snow cowl – No development.

Now let’s have a look at spring, month by month.

Determine four. Slight decline for the Northern Hemisphere as a complete, North America and Greenland insignificant adjustments.

Determine 5. April appears to be like so much like March.

Might begins to get fascinating.

Determine 6. When was the final time you skilled snowfall in Might within the Northern Hemisphere?

Keep in mind that again once we had some snowy months of Might, it was proper in the course of That 70’s Local weather Disaster Present…

Science Information March 1, 1975

Might 18, 1978

Hey! Who else had this album again within the 70’s?

Scorching August Night time, ‎December 9, 1972

Effectively, apparently the August nights weren’t all that sizzling in 1972.

Determine 7. Who would have guessed that Greenland was snowier in August 2019 than it was when Neil Diamond had hair?

Steve didn’t inform us what the local weather fashions predicted in regards to the fall… I’m gonna guess that the fashions should have predicted extra snowfall.

Determine eight. How’s this for an October shock?

Let’s simply be pleased about the local weather fashions. They actually saved New York Metropolis from being bulldozed by a rampaging horde of godless glaciers.

Determine 9. The Climatariat inform us that temperature observations have adopted the black curve and that the blue curve is what the temperatures would have accomplished if we simply agreed to freeze at nighttime for the sake of Polar Bears. Modified after IPCC AR4

In line with the sacred local weather fashions, if not for The Local weather Wrecking Trade, the planet could be colder than “The Ice Age Cometh”…

This proud petroleum geologist says, “You’re welcome.”

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