Pathway 2045 (2)
Visitor submit by Rud Istvan
Half One supplied a excessive degree overview of SoCalEd’s foolish model of the Inexperienced New Deal. This second visitor submit flies strafing low and gradual over level one among 5 of SoCalEd’s web impartial carbon 2045 plan—decarbonized grid electrical energy.
There are two pathways to decarbonized grid electrical energy: nuclear, or renewables. SoCalEd didn’t advocate nuclear. In a way, that’s good, as a result of constructing out Gen three nuclear (just like the now grossly over price range Voglte three and four items in Georgia) is an train in futility. The rational reply is to make use of the time that fracked pure fuel and CCGT provides to experiment with the a number of Gen four nuclear ideas at proof of idea/experimental scale, decide one (or extra) winners, and roll out 4G nuclear engineering winner(s) in future a long time. A number of sensible 4G choices are mentioned (with footnotes) in my ‘Going Nuclear’ essay in e-book Blowing Smoke.
Nope. SoCalEd selected renewables, as imaged from Abstract (1) Pathway 2045.
All retail electrical energy gross sales can be grid wind and photo voltaic by 2045! That may be a VERY tall order, as a result of there are only a few MAJOR technical engineering issues along with the economics, which SoCalEd MUST find out about.
Economically, it’s effectively established each within the US and in Europe that wind and photo voltaic do NOT thrive absent vital subsidies. A now dated determine from my CE visitor submit on ‘True Price of Wind’ suffices:
The reason for this determine is easy. As defined within the referenced CE visitor submit, the true value of CCGT on the Texas ERCOT grid is about $57/MWh; the true value of wind on that very same (windy)Texas grid at ~10% penetration is about $146/MWh. Nobody of their financial proper thoughts would go for wind with out huge subsidies. However SoCalEd has!
Photo voltaic is worse than wind. See CE submit Grid Photo voltaic Parity for explanations.
The truth that renewables are dearer is the least a part of the terrible grid story that SoCalEd does NOT inform their clients. The larger issues are that renewables are additionally intermittent, and supply no grid inertia. These are distinctly totally different issues, each deadly. The primary economically, the second technically.
Intermittency requires some type of grid backup energy. The difficulty is that it is a value the grid operator, not the sponsored renewable supplier, bears. The main points are difficult, as a result of they rely on renewable penetration versus inherent grid backup era, typicaly between 10 and 15%. However for certain (because the above references clarify), as renewable penetration approaches 10%, extra grid backup capability MUST be added for reliability. That may very well be Norse interconnect hydro for Germany, Quebec hydro for Ontario, or out of state era for California. BUT California is already outstripping its capability to parasite backup electricitiy from different states. Particularly after the previous 4 Corners (coal) is shut as a result of now obsolescent.
Grid interia is an AC frequency stability downside. Instability means blackouts even when the grid is on common adequatelly equipped with backup era. Enormously heavy rotating generator lots ( every tons of of tons) in a standard fossil gasoline equipped grid present (per Newton’s First and Second Legal guidelines) grid inertia. Neither wind nor photo voltaic provide any grid inertia, by definition. Grid inertia is important to stabilize grid frequency.
Grid inertia is an previous and well-known EE downside in typical grids the place demand is distant from provide. It’s solved by placing in native pricey ‘synchronous condensers’, basically giant undriven turbines which simply provide/take up rotating kinetic AC vitality when wanted. Under (per CtM request) is one among 6 that offer reactive present/frequency management to metropolitan Tokyo, since all its generationg stations are distant. Tokyo has NO renewable electrical energy provide as SoCalEd envisions in its level 1. And Tokyo is a LOT smaller than SoCal.
SoCalEd must set up tons of of those Toshiba 200MVAR (multi hundred million greenback every) synchronous condensers to fulfill some minimal grid reliability spec given its 2045 objectives. Their paper didn’t clarify the recognized AC grid inertia engineering downside (advanced arithmetic the place i [square root of minus one] computes frequency within the AC advanced math aircraft of a+bi* c+di).
This half two of six illustrates how SoCalEd deceived Californians with Pathway 2045 half 1, and explains why and the way with references. Keep tuned for submit three.
Like this:
Loading…
