Oil is doomed by one other pretend vitality acronym: EROCI
Visitor Aeuhhh???? by David Middleton
Economics
Oil Must Fall Under $20 to Compete With Inexperienced Options
By Mathew Carr
August 5, 2019, four:40 AM CDT Up to date on August 5, 2019, 9:18 AM CDT
Wind and solar energy can produce seven occasions extra helpful vitality for vehicles, greenback for greenback, than gasoline with oil costs close to present ranges, based on BNP Paribas SA.
Oil could have fall to $9-$10 a barrel within the long-term to ensure that gasoline vehicles to stay aggressive with clean-powered electrical automobiles, and to $17-$19 a barrel for diesel, Mark Lewis, international head of sustainability analysis at BNP’s asset administration unit, stated in a analysis report. U.S. benchmark crude was buying and selling at about $55 in New York on Monday.
“Our evaluation results in a really stark conclusion for the oil business: for a similar capital outlay in the present day, wind and photo voltaic vitality will already produce far more helpful vitality for EVs than will oil bought on the spot market,” Lewis stated. “These are gorgeous numbers, and so they counsel that the economics of renewables in tandem with EVs are set to develop into irresistible over the following decade.”
Lewis coined the time period “vitality return on capital invested” to elucidate the economics of highway transport. It’s a measure of the cash spent on oil and renewables and the differential of their internet vitality produced when used to offer mobility, he stated.
[…]
Bloomberg
Oil Must Fall Under $20 to Compete With Inexperienced Options…
Aeuhhh????
Renewables should be so feeble, they now want two pretend vitality acronyms to make them viable.
First we had Power Returned on Power Invested (EROEI) and now we have now Power Returned on Capital Invested (EROCI)…
Stark raving mad numbers
The EROCI chart is evaluating the capital prices of constructing offshore wind and photo voltaic PV energy crops to the gross sales value of crude oil. It doesn’t get far more apples and oranges than this. Based mostly on this bass-ackwards math, $9/bbl oil is price greater than $60/bbl oil. I solely minored in math and spent a lot of the final 40 years concerned in financial geology… However that’s simply fracking psychological.
“Our evaluation results in a really stark conclusion for the oil business: for a similar capital outlay in the present day, wind and photo voltaic vitality will already produce far more helpful vitality for EVs than will oil bought on the spot market.”
Mark Lewis, BNP Paribas, international head of sustainability analysis, BA in Spanish & German, MPhil in Latin American Research, MA in German – LinkedIn
No enterprise makes an funding choice primarily based on “vitality return.” Returns are denominated in $$$ or another type of forex.
If his level is that oil must drop to $9/bbl for gasoline costs to be low sufficient to make ICE automobiles cheaper to drive than EV’s… We have already got a metric for this idea: Miles per gallon equal (MPGe). EV’s are cheaper to drive, at the least on paper… But the Ford F-Sequence pickup truck outsells all makes and fashions of EV’s mixed in these sometimes United States… by a large margin.
Gross sales knowledge from Inside EV’s and Automobile Gross sales Base
To be honest, the article does go on to acknowledge that oil has a YUGE scale issue benefit over unicorn mud… However the unicorn mud is definitely much more costly than indicated in Señor (or is it Herr?) Lewis’ EROCI graph.
EIA “Value and efficiency traits of recent central station electrical energy producing applied sciences”
Why is there such an incessant want for these folks to make up pretend metrics, pretend numbers and declare an finish to actuality? I feel this explains the issue: BNP Paribas, “The financial institution for a altering world.”
Within the meantime, actuality marches on…
It’s a fossil-fueled world!
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