From Polar Bear Science
Value watching if you happen to haven’t seen it – and a re-assessment if in case you have – a uncommon balanced documentary produced by the CBC in 2014 on polar bear conservation, with interviews with biologists Mitch Taylor and Andrew Derocher.
“In The Politics of Polar Bears, Reg Sherren will decide his approach by the message monitor that can assist you determine what is absolutely occurring with the most important land carnivore on the planet.”
Brief model right here (about 18 minutes):
Total model (45:30):
On-line abstract by the producer of the movie, Reg Sherren (see excerpt beneath).
Essentially the most up-to-date dialogue of polar bear numbers and the politics of polar bears are in my in style new e-book, The Polar Bear Disaster That By no means Occurred.
From Reg Sherren’s (2 September 2014) abstract article:
“For a while now the suggestion has been that polar bears are in bother and that many sub-populations of Ursus maritimus are reducing, making them an iconic image within the struggle towards international local weather change.
However there stays an ongoing debate throughout the scientific neighborhood that research polar bears and their populations about whether or not the narrative of declining numbers is a stark actuality or handy delusion.
Andrew Derocher, a professor of organic sciences on the College of Alberta, has spent his decades-long profession finding out polar bears, and has been extra outspoken than most concerning the peril the massive bear might face within the coming years.
“Our estimation is that we most likely received’t have polar bears in Churchill as soon as we get out to mid-century … They could possibly be gone in a few years.”
“Our estimations are, if we had a really early soften, and a really late freeze, we might see as much as 50 per cent mortality in a single 12 months. You place a few years like that back-to-back, and issues might occur in a short time,” says Derocher, in reference to a worst-case situation about sure sub-populations he has studied. [SJC – see my post here on that issue]
However not everybody agrees polar bears are in bother. Biologist Mitchell Taylor has studied polar bears and suggested governments for greater than thirty years, residing within the excessive Arctic for a lot of that point.
“They’ve actually been round by the final interglacial interval,” says Taylor. “Throughout that interglacial it was hotter than it’s now: we had pine bushes on Baffin Island, deciduous forests north of the Arctic Circle. Polar bears needed to have survived that or we wouldn’t be seeing polar bears now,” he says.
Taylor asserts that polar bear populations “don’t look like declining” in any group that he’s “conscious of to date,” and that the science of estimating polar bear numbers has by no means been exact. He says that lots of the present estimates are primarily based upon a missing methodology, admitting that a few of his earlier work integrated the allegedly defective method as nicely.
Taylor says the issue lies in the best way inhabitants estimates are extrapolated from samples.
“While you don’t pattern the entire space you underestimate survival, you underestimate inhabitants numbers, and actually the fruits of these biases can lead to a scientific estimate that means a decline when none exists.” [SJC – See my post here about that issue]
It was simply over a decade in the past, says Taylor, that the notion that polar bears could possibly be threatened by local weather change gained traction. However he takes difficulty with the IPCC’s projection fashions for sea ice adjustments within the Arctic.
In 2008, he signed the controversial Manhattan Declaration on local weather change, which argued that there was no conclusive proof that carbon dioxide emissions from fashionable industrial exercise was inflicting catastrophic adjustments in international local weather.
“There was just one perspective, and that was what was supplied by the IPCC,” says Taylor.
Taylor says that as a result of he lived within the north he had direct contact with the folks within the space, giving him a novel perspective on what was actually occurring on the bottom.
“What they had been describing was fairly merely inconsistent with what I used to be listening to from native folks, what I used to be seeing myself.”
Associated posts for background and follow-up
Sea ice consultants make astonishing admissions to polar bear specialists July 29, 2014
Dodgy new clarification of worldwide polar bear inhabitants estimate (sure, one other) July 5, 2014
Polar bear inhabitants numbers are for teenagers, says specialist Andrew Derocher [April 9, 2018]
Southern Beaufort polar bear ‘decline’ & lowered cub survival touted in 2008 was invalid, PBSG now admits March 24, 2014
Polar bears and melting ice_three info that shouldn’t shock you July 20, 2014
Even with Inuit lives at stake, polar bear specialists make unsupported claims April 23, 2019
Western Hudson Bay polar bears in nice form after 5 good sea ice seasons September 5, 2019
Folks go to Churchill to see polar bears within the wild and PBI controls the information they get September 18, 2019