Decision and Hockey Sticks, Half 1

Visitor sciency schist by David Middleton

Decision vs. Detection

Geoscientists within the oil & gasoline trade spend a lot of our time integrating knowledge units of vastly totally different resolutions.  Geological knowledge, primarily nicely logs, are very excessive decision (6 inches to 2 ft vertical decision).  Geophysical knowledge, primarily reflection seismic surveys, are of a lot decrease and extremely variable decision, depending on the seismic velocities of the rocks and the frequency content material of the seismic knowledge.  The rule of thumb is stratigraphic unit should be no less than as thick as one-quarter of the seismic wavelength (λ/four) to be resolved.

Determine 1a. Seismic wavelength vs velocity for 10, 25, 50 and 100 Hz dominant frequencies. (SEG Wiki)

Thinner beds may be detected, however not resolved.  The identical precept applies to regular faults.  If the throw (vertical offset) is no less than λ/four, the fault may be resolved and the throw may be precisely estimated from the seismic knowledge. If the throw is lower than λ/four, the very best I can decide is fault might be current.

Determine 1b. Seismic expression of a standard fault at λ/16, λ/Eight, λ/four, λ/2 and λ. (SEG Wiki)

After we combine geological and geophysical knowledge, we don’t simply splice the nicely log onto a seismic profile.   We convert the nicely logs into an artificial seismogram.  That is most successfully completed utilizing sonic and density logs.

Determine 2. Artificial Seismogram (AAPG Wiki)

The sonic and density logs are used to calculate acoustic impedance and a mirrored image coefficient collection (RC).  The RC is convolved with a seismic wavelet, usually extracted from the seismic knowledge close to the nicely.  The artificial seismic traces (three panels on the fitting) can then be instantly in comparison with the seismic profile.  The decision distinction is sort of giant.  The trough-to-trough interval on the seismic pulse under is about 150 m.

Determine three. Schematic comparability or a nicely log and a seismic pulse with a wavelength of 150 m. (College of Maryland)

How Does This Relate to Local weather “Science”

Sign idea and sign processing rules apply to all alerts, not simply seismic knowledge. A sign is a time-variant sequence of numbers. Nearly all temperature, carbon dioxide and sea degree reconstructions make use of most of the identical knowledge processing strategies as seismic knowledge processing. Deconvolution is especially important to ice core carbon dioxide chronologies. Typically the sign processing strategies are correctly employed. Van Hoof et al., 2005 demonstrated that the ice core CO2 knowledge characterize a low-frequency, century to multi-century shifting common of previous atmospheric CO2 ranges. They basically generated the equal of an artificial seismogram from the stomata chronology and tied it to the ice core.

Determine four. Panel A is stomatal frequency curve. Panel B is the D47 Antarctic ice core. The dashed line on Panel B is the “artificial” ice core generated from the stomatal frequency curve. (Van Hoof et al., 2005)

From my geological perspective, most local weather “hockey sticks” are the results of the improper integration of excessive decision instrumental knowledge (akin to nicely logs) and decrease decision proxy knowledge (akin to reflection seismic knowledge).  Many of those hockey sticks seem to have been the results of a careless, if not reckless, disregard of fundamental sign processing rules.

Temperature Reconstruction Hockey Sticks

Determine 5. “Mike’s Nature Trick” Older is towards the left.

One of the vital egregious violations of sign processing rules is the technology of local weather reconstruction “hockey sticks” via variations of “Mike’s Nature Trick.”

Within the aftermath of the “Climategate” scandal, Penn State carried out an “investigation” of Mike’s Nature Trick.   The Penn State whitewash was ludicrous…

After cautious consideration of all of the proof and related supplies, the inquiry committee discovering is that there exists no credible proof that Dr. Mann had or has ever engaged in, or participated in, instantly or not directly, any actions with an intent to suppress or to falsify knowledge.

RA-10 Inquiry Report

It may well’t be confirmed that he supposed to suppress or falsify inconvenient knowledge. It’s fully potential that he by chance devised a way to suppress or falsify inconvenient knowledge.

This bit right here was laughable…

In truth on the contrary, in cases which were centered upon by some as indicating falsification of information, for instance in the usage of a “trick” to control the info, that is defined as a dialogue amongst Dr. Jones and others together with Dr. Mann about how finest to place collectively a graph for a World Meteorological Group (WMO) report. They weren’t falsifying knowledge; they have been making an attempt to assemble an comprehensible graph for many who weren’t specialists within the discipline. The so-called “trick”1 was nothing greater than a statistical methodology used to deliver two or extra totally different sorts of information units collectively in a official trend by a way that has been reviewed by a broad array of friends within the discipline. 

RA-10 Inquiry Report

Essentially the most benign potential interpretation of the “trick” is that they edited a part of Keith Briffa’s reconstruction as a result of the tree ring chronology confirmed that the 1930s to early 1940′s have been hotter than the late 1990′s. So, they simply substituted the instrumental file for the tree ring chronology.  Within the non-public sector, this kind of conduct isn’t benign… It’s grounds for speedy termination or worse.

I suppose that there isn’t a proof that they did this with intent to deceive.  Nonetheless, the truth that they referred to as it “Mike’s nature trick” certain makes it look like this kind of factor was normal working process.

Taking a set of information that reveals that the 1930′s have been hotter than the 1990′s and utilizing one other knowledge set to reverse that relationship is just not bringing “two or extra totally different sorts of information units collectively in a official trend.” It’s a complete bastardization of the info.

To see an instance of “Mike’s Nature Trick,” go right here… Proxy-based reconstructions of hemispheric and world floor temperature variations over the previous two millennia 

Click on this… EIV Temperature Reconstructions

Open up any of the **cru_eiv_composite.csv or **had_eiv_composite.csv information. All of them splice the excessive frequency instrumental knowledge into the low frequency proxy knowledge. To Mann’s credit score,  he no less than paperwork this one sufficient to type it out.

This assertion from their PNAS paper is completely unsupported by proxy reconstructions… “Latest heat seems anomalous for no less than the previous 1,300 years whether or not or not tree-ring knowledge are used. If tree-ring knowledge are used, the conclusion may be prolonged to no less than the previous 1,700 years.”

The anomalous nature of the “latest heat” is fully depending on the “tough” use of the instrumental knowledge. He didn’t use any proxy knowledge post-1850. The eivrecondescription file states “Be aware: values from 1850-2006AD are instrumental knowledge”.

This picture from Mann’s 2008 paper implies that all the reconstructions are basically settlement concerning the declare that the “latest heat seems anomalous for no less than the previous 1,300 years”…

Determine 6. “Spaghetti” graph from Mann et al., 2008. Older is towards the left.

By cluttering up the picture with many reconstructions and plastering the instrumental file onto finish of the graph, it’s unimaginable to see any particulars.

Listed here are Mann (Cru_EIV), Moberg, 2005, Christiansen & Ljungqvist 2012 (un-smoothed) Ljungqvist 2010 and Esper 2002 (low frequency)…

Determine 7. Muddle can work each methods. Older is towards the left.

Zoomed in on post-1800 with HadCRUT4 NH added:

Determine Eight. Older is towards the left.

The Fashionable Warming solely seems anomalous due to the upper decision of the instrumental file and its place on the tail-end of the time collection.

Ljungqvist (2010) clearly defined the issue with instantly evaluating instrumental knowledge to proxy reconstructions.

The amplitude of the reconstructed temperature variability on centennial time-scales exceeds zero.6°C. This reconstruction is the primary to point out a definite Roman Heat Interval c. AD 1-300, reaching as much as the 1961-1990 imply temperature degree, adopted by the Darkish Age Chilly Interval c. AD 300-800. The Medieval Heat Interval is seen c. AD 800–1300 and the Little Ice Age is clearly seen c. AD 1300-1900, adopted by a fast temperature enhance within the twentieth century. The best common temperatures within the reconstruction are encountered within the mid to late tenth century and the bottom within the late seventeenth century. Decadal imply temperatures appear to have reached or exceeded the 1961-1990 imply temperature degree throughout substantial elements of the Roman Heat Interval and the Medieval Heat Interval. The temperature of the final 20 years, nevertheless, is presumably larger than throughout any earlier time up to now two millennia, though that is solely seen within the instrumental temperature knowledge and never within the multi-proxy reconstruction itself.

[…]

The proxy reconstruction itself doesn’t present such an unprecedented warming however we should take into account that just a few data used within the reconstruction prolong into the 1990s. However, a really cautious interpretation of the extent of heat since AD 1990 in comparison with that of the height warming in the course of the Roman Heat Interval and the Medieval Heat Interval is strongly advised.

[…]

The amplitude of the temperature variability on multi-decadal to centennial time-scales reconstructed right here ought to presumably be thought-about to be the minimal of the true variability on these time-scales.

Ljungqvist, 2010

Determine 9. Ljungqvist demonstrated that the fashionable warming had not unambiguously exceeded the vary of pure variability. The daring black dashed line is the instrumental file. I added the crimson traces to mirror the margin of error of the proxy knowledge relative to the instrumental knowledge. Older is towards the left.

Direct comparisons of the the fashionable instrumental file to the older proxy reconstructions should not sturdy as a result of the proxy knowledge are of a lot decrease decision. The proxy knowledge point out the “minimal of the true variability on these time-scales.” The instrumental knowledge are depicting one thing nearer to precise variability.

The proxy knowledge lack the excessive frequency part of the sign.  When the excessive frequency part of a sign is filtered out, it attenuates the amplitude.

Determine 10. Sine wave with 10-pt smoothing common utilized. Be aware the discount in amplitude on account of filtering and  smoothing. (Wooden for Bushes) Older is towards the left.

The direct comparability of instrumental knowledge to proxy knowledge turns into much more problematic when the file size is prolonged past 2,000 years.

Determine 11. Holocene Local weather Reconstruction, Andy Might WUWT. Older is towards the fitting.

The supposedly “4 warmest years on file” have occurred about 300 years after the coldest century of the previous 100 centuries.  This might solely be described as a “local weather disaster” or “local weather emergency” by somebody who was completely blind to fundamental scientific rules, notably Quaternary geology and sign processing.  It’s really a helluva so much higher than simply about some other potential evolution of Earth’s “local weather.”

The longer the file size of the reconstruction, the extra vital the consistency of the temporal decision turns into.

“Consistency of the temporal decision” signifies that the decision of the older proxies are according to the latest proxies. Temporal decision is a perform of the sampling interval…

We imagine the larger supply of error in these reconstructions is within the proxy choice. As documented on this collection, a number of the unique 73 proxies are affected by decision points that conceal important climatic occasions and a few are affected by native circumstances that haven’t any regional or world significance. Others cowl brief time spans that don’t cowl the 2 most vital climatic options of the Holocene, the Little Ice Age and the Holocene Climatic Optimum.

[…]

We additionally prevented proxies with lengthy pattern intervals (larger than 130 years) as a result of they have an inclination to cut back the decision of the reconstruction and so they dampen (“common out”) vital particulars. The smallest local weather cycle is roughly 61 to 64 years, the so-called “stadium wave,” and we need to try to get near seeing its affect. On this easy reconstruction, we now have tried to handle these points.

Andy Might WUWT.

It is a desk of all the “used” proxies. They’ve pretty constant temporal decision. They’ve lengthy file lengths and most, if not all, cowl the Holocene Climatic Optimum and Little Ice Age, the warmest and coldest climatic phases of the Holocene. It’s about as near “apples and apples” you will get with a >10,000-yr world temperature reconstruction. Andy’s proxies have a median decision of 75 yrs and a median file size of 11,697 yrs with low normal deviations (by proxy collection requirements). There is no such thing as a important development of degrading decision with time, as happens in most proxy reconstructions.

Determine 12. Temporal decision (left axis) and file size (proper axis). Older is towards the fitting.

Andy’s reconstruction demonstrates that the nadir of the Little Ice Age was the coldest climatic interval of the Holocene. It is a function of each non-hockey stick reconstruction and even most hockey stick reconstructions, together with the serially flawed Marcott et al., 2013.  It additionally demonstrates that the fashionable warming is inconspicuous relative to the Holocene’s pervasive millennial-scale local weather sign (Bohling &Davis, 2001).

If you happen to open the Reconstruction References spreadsheet and go to the far proper column (Feedback), Andy notes whether or not the proxy was “used” or explains why it was rejected. The three commonest causes for rejecting proxy collection have been:

Coarse decision (denoted as “decision too huge”)Not outdated enoughNot Younger sufficient

Andy might have spliced the instrumental file onto the top of this and made a hockey stick… However that might be fraudulent wherever exterior of educational and authorities “science”. It’s akin to splicing a nicely log right into a seismic line and calling it an anomaly.

Relating to Marcott, the authors even state that their Holocene reconstruction can’t be instantly in comparison with instrumental knowledge on account of decision variations… But they achieve this anyway.

Q: What do paleotemperature reconstructions present in regards to the temperature of the final 100 years?

A: Our world paleotemperature reconstruction features a so-called “uptick” in temperatures in the course of the 20th-century. Nonetheless, within the paper we make the purpose that this specific function is of shorter period than the inherent smoothing in our statistical averaging process, and that it’s based mostly on just a few obtainable paleo-reconstructions of the kind we used. Thus, the 20th century portion of our paleotemperature stack is just not statistically sturdy, can’t be thought-about consultant of world temperature adjustments, and subsequently is just not the idea of any of our conclusions. Our major conclusions are based mostly on a comparability of the long run paleotemperature adjustments from our reconstruction with the well-documented temperature adjustments which have occurred over the past century, as documented by the instrumental file. Though not a part of our research, high-resolution paleoclimate knowledge from the previous ~130 years have been compiled from numerous geological archives, and ensure the final options of warming development over this time interval (Anderson, D.M. et al., 2013, Geophysical Analysis Letters, v. 40, p. 189-193; http://www.agu.org/journals/pip/gl/2012GL054271-pip.pdf).

Q: Is the speed of world temperature rise over the past 100 years quicker than at any time in the course of the previous 11,300 years?

A: Our research didn’t instantly deal with this query as a result of the paleotemperature data utilized in our research have a temporal decision of ~120 years on common, which precludes us from analyzing variations in charges of change occurring inside a century. Different components additionally contribute to smoothing the proxy temperature alerts contained in most of the data we used, similar to organisms burrowing via deep-sea mud, and chronological uncertainties within the proxy data that are likely to easy the alerts when compositing them right into a globally averaged reconstruction. We confirmed that no temperature variability is preserved in our reconstruction at cycles shorter than 300 years, 50% is preserved at 1000-year time scales, and almost all is preserved at 2000-year durations and longer. Our Monte-Carlo evaluation accounts for these sources of uncertainty to yield a strong (albeit smoothed) world file. Any small “upticks” or “downticks” in temperature that final lower than a number of hundred years in our compilation of paleoclimate knowledge are in all probability not sturdy, as acknowledged within the paper.

Actual Local weather

If the “the 20th century portion of our paleotemperature stack is just not statistically sturdy”… Why was it included within the publication? The fashionable instrumental file could be a single knowledge level on the decision of Marcott’s reconstruction.

Why does this matter?

So, what wouldn’t it imply, if the reconstructions point out a bigger (Esper et al., 2002; Pollack and Smerdon, 2004; Moberg et al., 2005) or smaller (Jones et al., 1998; Mann et al., 1999) temperature amplitude? We propose that the previous state of affairs, i.e. enhanced variability throughout pre-industrial occasions, would end in a redistribution of weight in direction of the position of pure components in forcing temperature adjustments, thereby comparatively devaluing the affect of anthropogenic emissions and affecting future predicted eventualities. If that seems to be the case, agreements such because the Kyoto protocol that intend to cut back emissions of anthropogenic greenhouse gases, could be much less efficient than thought.

Esper et al., 2005

It issues as a result of the one option to instantly evaluate the instrumental knowledge to the pre-industrial proxy knowledge is the filter the instrumental knowledge right down to the decision of the proxy knowledge.  This results in local weather reconstructions with “enhanced variability throughout pre-industrial occasions” and “end in a redistribution of weight in direction of the position of pure components in forcing temperature adjustments, thereby comparatively devaluing the affect of anthropogenic emissions and affecting future predicted eventualities.”

It issues as a result of the advocates of the Anthropocene as a geologic epoch are counting on the Marcott hockey stick.

Determine 13. Run Away! The Anthropocene Has Arrived!!! Older is towards the left.

It issues as a result of hockey sticks are getting used to justify coverage adjustments, carbon taxes and destroy particular person liberty and prosperity.

Many of the asserted proof that latest local weather adjustments deviate from the norms of the Holocene are equally according to being the results of variations within the decision of paleo-climate knowledge and instrumental data.

Half deux will deal with carbon dioxide and sea degree hockey sticks.

References

Anklin, M., J. Schwander, B. Stauffer, J. Tschumi, A. Fuchs, J. M. Barnola, and D. Raynaud (1997), “CO2record between 40 and eight kyr B.P. from the Greenland Ice Core Challenge ice core,” J. Geophys. Res., 102(C12), 26539–26545, doi: 10.1029/97JC00182.

Christiansen, B. and F.C. Ljungqvist. 2012. “The additional-tropical Northern Hemisphere temperature within the final two millennia: reconstructions of low-frequency variability”. Local weather of the Previous, Vol. Eight, pp. 765-786. www.clim-past.internet/Eight/765/2012/ doi:10.5194/cp-Eight-765-2012

Davis, J. C., and G. C. Bohling. “The seek for patterns in ice-core temperature curves. 2001, in L. C. Gerhard, W. E. Harrison, and B. M. Hanson, eds., Geological views of world local weather change, p. 213–229.

Esper, J., E.R. Prepare dinner, and F.H. Schweingruber. 2002.  “Low-Frequency Indicators in Lengthy Tree-Ring Chronologies for  Reconstructing Previous Temperature Variability”.  Science, Quantity 295, Quantity 5563, 22 March 2002.

Esper, J., R.J.S. Wilson,  D.C. Frank, A. Moberg, H. Wanner, & J. Luterbacher.  2005.  “Local weather: previous ranges and future adjustments”.  Quaternary Science Evaluations 24: 2164-2166.

Etheridge, D.M., L.P. Steele, R.L. Langenfelds, R.J. Francey, J.-M. Barnola and V.I. Morgan. 1998. “Historic CO2 data from the Legislation Dome DE08, DE08-2, and DSS ice cores”. In Developments: A Compendium of Knowledge on International Change. Carbon Dioxide Data Evaluation Middle, Oak Ridge Nationwide Laboratory, U.S. Division of Vitality, Oak Ridge, Tenn., U.S.A.

Finsinger, W. and F. Wagner-Cremer. “Stomatal-based inference fashions for reconstruction of atmospheric CO2 focus: a way evaluation utilizing a calibration and validation strategy”. The Holocene 19,5 (2009) pp. 757–764

Kouwenberg, LLR. 2004. “Software of conifer needles within the reconstruction of Holocene CO2 ranges”. PhD Thesis. Laboratory of Palaeobotany and Palynology, College of Utrecht.

Ljungqvist, F.C. 2009. N. Hemisphere Further-Tropics 2,000yr Decadal Temperature Reconstruction. IGBP PAGES/World Knowledge Middle for Paleoclimatology Knowledge Contribution Collection # 2010-089. NOAA/NCDC Paleoclimatology Program, Boulder CO, USA.

Ljungqvist, F.C. 2010. “A brand new reconstruction of temperature variability within the extra-tropical Northern Hemisphere over the past two millennia”. Geografiska Annaler: Bodily Geography, Vol. 92 A(three), pp. 339-351, September 2010. DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-459.2010.00399.x

Mann, Michael,  Zhihua Zhang, Malcolm Ok Hughes, Raymond Bradley, Sonya Ok Miller, Scott Rutherford, & Fenbiao Ni. (2008). “Proxy-based Reconstructions of Hemispheric and International Floor Temperature Variations over the Previous Two Millennia”. Proceedings of the Nationwide Academy of Sciences of america of America. 105. 13252-7. 10.1073/pnas.0805721105.

McElwain et al., 2002. “Stomatal proof for a decline in atmospheric CO2 focus in the course of the Youthful Dryas stadial: a comparability with Antarctic ice core data”. J. Quaternary Sci., Vol. 17 pp. 21–29. ISSN 0267-8179

Moberg, A., D.M. Sonechkin, Ok. Holmgren, N.M. Datsenko & W. Karlén. 2005. “Extremely variable Northern Hemisphere temperatures reconstructed from low-and high-resolution proxy knowledge”. Nature, Vol. 433, No. 7026, pp. 613-617, 10 February 2005.

Van Hoof, Thomas, Karsten A. Kaspers, Friederike Wagner-Cremer, R.S.W. Wal, Wolfram Kürschner & Henk Visscher. (2005). “Atmospheric CO 2 in the course of the 13th century AD: reconciliation of information from ice core measurements and stomatal frequency evaluation”. Tellus B. 57. 10.3402/tellusb.v57i4.16555.

For added references, see these Watts Up With That posts:

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