My latest video launched right this moment summarizes the robust polar bear element to the terrorization of the world’s kids about local weather change, which started for a lot of kids in 2006 with the BBC and Sir David Attenborough’s commentaries concerning the dire way forward for polar bears – and continues to this present day. Youngsters get their local weather change info from watching Attenborough documentaries at dwelling and in class as a result of they’re trusted sources of knowledge, however on the subject of Arctic victims of local weather change, that belief has been betrayed.
Many kids and younger adults worldwide, together with 16 12 months outdated Swedish local weather campaigner Greta Thunburg, have been introduced with such emotionally-charged and misleading details about the Arctic by way of Attenborough’s productions that many have misplaced hope for the longer term. These despondent youngsters, in addition to their mother and father and academics, want reminding that whereas summer season sea ice has certainly declined over the previous few many years, polar bears, walrus, and different Arctic species are thriving (Aars 2018; Boveng 2016; Crockford 2017, 2018, 2019a, b; Kovacs 2016; Lowry 2015; MacCracken et al. 2017; Obbard et al. 2016; Rode et al. 2014, 2018).
Right here is the video (13 minutes):
The press launch issued by the World Warming Coverage Discussion board states:
It’s the accountability of academics and fogeys to reassure these apprehensive kids that polar bears and walrus are usually not struggling due to sea ice loss blamed on local weather change. Kids should be instructed the reality: that no matter scary tales some biologists provide you with about what would possibly occur sooner or later, Arctic species have demonstrated that they’re much extra resilient to modifications in sea ice than Attenborough’s movies recommend.
The GWPF is sending copies of this video to all head academics of UK faculties along with a letter, telling them that they’re liable for the psychological well being of their pupils and that they’ve a accountability to supply their pupils with correct details about the state of wildlife within the Arctic.
The letter despatched to go academics will embody an inventory of verifiable details, with references, listed right here.
Beneath is my timeline, with references, and beneath the references is an inventory of earlier movies on this subject.
2006: Within the BBC TV particular, ‘The Fact About Local weather Change: Half 1’ (out there to academics all through Europe on DVD by 2008), polar bear researcher Nick Lunn is on display and gives deceptive info that implies bears are being harmed by lack of sea ice in Western Hudson Bay. He tells broadcaster David Attenborough that females have been ravenous and their cubs dying due to diminished summer season sea ice, regardless of documented proof that related phenomena occurred within the 1980s and early 1990s earlier than ice loss was a difficulty.
As I clarify in my e-book, The Polar Bear Disaster That By no means Occurred, the one approach that Lunn obtained away with this slight-of-hand (e.g. Stirling, Lunn and Iacozza 1999) – which he and colleagues Ian Stirling and Andrew Derocher are nonetheless doing – was by intentionally ignoring knowledge collected within the 60s and 70s. Inclusion of these early years of information (e.g. Derocher and Stirling 1992) present weight reduction and cub survival dropped inexplicably within the 80s and early 90s (earlier than diminished ice was a difficulty) in comparison with the 60s and 70s, after which dropped once more within the late 1990s and early 2000s, when it was claimed local weather change was guilty.
2009 apart: After efficiently getting polar bears listed as ‘threatened’ on the US Endangered Species Checklist (which was worldwide information in 2008), in 2009 polar bear scientists once more exaggerated their proof that bears have been being harmed by lack of sea ice. Conservation organizations like PBI and WWF interpreted the 2009 IUCN PBSG report as saying that many areas of the Arctic now confirmed inhabitants declines. In actuality, the report confirmed that solely two populations surveyed that had proven a documented decline whereas 4 have been both secure or growing; a number of different populations have been assumed to have declined as a result of September ice extent had declined (e.g. Chukchi Sea) and the worldwide inhabitants measurement had not modified (Obbard et al. 2010).
2011: Within the local weather change episode of his BBC Frozen Planet collection referred to as ‘On Skinny Ice’, Sir David Attenborough repeated the above NGO misinformation from 2009 that polar bear numbers had been falling “in lots of areas” and instructed viewers that polar bear moms and cubs have been ravenous, even whereas displaying fats wholesome bears (beneath). This was proven within the UK and Europe early within the 12 months, in December within the USA and was out there worldwide on DVD by 2012.
2011: Greta Thunberg was about eight years outdated in 2011 and says that’s concerning the time she started to be proven movies of ravenous polar bears and different environmental calamities at college. These movies prompted her such misery that by early 2014 (at age 11) she had stopped consuming and going to high school. Beneath from the BBC (23 April 2019):
It was most likely the BBC’s ‘On Skinny Ice’ episode that Greta was proven however there have been undoubtedly others, just like the 2006 Attenborough-narrated BBC particular from 2006. We can’t be sure precisely what movies Greta was proven by her academics (and it’s unlikely she is aware of herself) however the launch date of the “On Skinny Ice’ episode suggests it performed a major position even when it was not the one affect.
Nonetheless, it appears Attenborough’s phrases about ravenous polar bears caught with Greta greater than the photographs of the fats bears that appeared within the movie as a result of printed photographs of ravenous bears have been uncommon over that 2011-2013 time interval (see beneath): just one broadly publicized incident falls inside that interval (and even then, solely within the final six months of it) though there have been a minimum of two afterwards. In different phrases, I doubt Greta noticed photographs of ravenous polar bears in 2011 or 2012 however she definitely heard about them in Attenborough’s movies – which the 2013 incident would have bolstered.
2015 apart: Summer season sea ice had declined even additional within the Arctic by this time, to about 42% lower than was current in 1979. Nonetheless, the estimate of worldwide polar bear numbers rose barely, from the ca. 24,500 cited by the USGS in 2005 to 26,000 (vary 22,000-31,000) utilizing related strategies. There had been no catastrophic decline in polar bear numbers as had been predicted.
2015: BBC Earth episode ‘The Hunt’ – about adapting to seasonal ice modifications – contains a Svalbard skinny bear looking a bearded seal.
2017: BBC’s ‘Blue Planet II’ exhibits walrus moms and calves on melting ice floes and so-called ‘determined’ polar bears looking them.
2019: Greta is enraged at political inaction on local weather change and makes a speech to the UN in late September.
2019: BBC’s ‘Seven Worlds, One Planet: Asia’ (proven in November within the UK, scheduled for launch in North America in January 2020) exhibits large seaside haulouts and a number of other ‘hungry’ polar bears driving walrus over the cliff, all falsely blamed on local weather change. One other episode of the collection (‘North America’) exhibits fats polar bears looking beluga from shore, which is falsely claimed to have by no means occurred earlier than (Smith and Sjare 1990) amid recommendations the bears are doing it as a result of they’re desperately hungry.
2019: In mid-December, seven-and-eight-year olds in Toronto are proven Greta’s speech to ‘encourage’ them to behave on local weather change and a few are traumatized by it. Such actions by academics give undeserved credence to Thunburg’s jaundiced view of the world and go it alongside to younsters ill-prepared to evaluate its validity. As a consequence, the misinformation about polar bears that Greta obtained as a toddler from Attenborough’s movies is inflicting many extra younger kids to be terrified about the way forward for the world.
Second-last day of 2019: Greta is invited to be visitor editor of a particular New Years Eve BBC Radio Four broadcast on local weather change that includes Sir David Attenborough, regardless of long-standing accusations of BBC bias on this subject (Booker 2011), together with very latest complaints: learn right here – pay attention right here. For the primary time, Greta is nose to nose with Attenborough (through Skype), the one particular person most liable for offering the pretend information about dying polar bears that so disturbed her again in 2011. In her interview, she acknowledged his position, saying,
“…thanks for that, as a result of that was what made me resolve to do one thing about it.”
Conclusion: By early 2019, the misinformation fed to Attenborough by biologists had been uncovered and most rational folks realized that polar bears have been doing advantageous regardless of declining summer season sea ice. Hole tales a couple of bleak future for polar bears had misplaced their energy to impress the general public and using ravenous bears to emotionally manipulate viewers backfired as soon as folks found that hunger is the main pure reason for dying for this species.
As a consequence, a variety of local weather change activists and their promoters declared the polar bear immaterial to their trigger. The false ravenous polar bear meme had come again to chew them and it was time to maneuver on. In Could 2019, the New York Instances proclaimed that “These Days, It’s Not Concerning the Polar Bears” (displaying an image of fats Belushya Guba bears). and by October, the Guardian introduced a proper coverage choice to eschew polar bear photographs when selling their local weather change emergency narrative. Activist biologists and their supporters have been nonetheless frantically attempting to maintain the polar bear related however have been quickly dropping floor: they over-sold their case and misplaced.
There isn’t a indication Greta has ever questioned or thought critically about her preliminary impressions on the standing of polar bears that she obtained from the movies she noticed in class when she was a really younger little one. Apparently, she believes each phrase Attenborough utters now, as she did then, as if he was some sort of messiah moderately than the uncritical conduit for biased messages he really is. Sir David Attenborough by no means questioned his sources and neither has Greta. Each are out of contact with actuality on what is occurring within the Arctic and it has tarnished their outlook on life: Attenborough, at 93, isn’t any higher knowledgeable than Greta, at 17. What a waste.
Aars, J. 2018. Inhabitants modifications in polar bears: protected, however shortly dropping habitat. Fram Discussion board Publication 2018. Fram Centre, Tromso. Obtain pdf right here (32 mb).
Booker, C. 2011. The BBC and Local weather Change: A Triple Betrayal. World Warming Coverage Basis Report #5. London. Pdf right here.
Boveng, P. 2016. Pusa hispida ssp. hispida. The IUCN Crimson Checklist of Threatened Species 2016: e.T61382318A61382321. http://dx.doi.org/10.2305/IUCN.UK.2016-1.RLTS.T61382318A61382321.en.
Crockford, S.J. 2017. Testing the speculation that routine sea ice protection of Three-5 mkm2 leads to a larger than 30% decline in inhabitants measurement of polar bears (Ursus maritimus). PeerJ Preprints 19 January 2017. Doi: 10.7287/peerj.preprints.2737v1 Open entry. https://peerj.com/preprints/2737/
Crockford, S.J. 2018. State of the Polar Bear Report 2017. World Warming Coverage Basis Report #29. London. pdf.
Crockford, S.J. 2019a. State of the Polar Bear Report 2018. World Warming Coverage Basis Report 32, London.
Crockford, S.J. 2019b. The Polar Bear Disaster That By no means Occurred. World Warming Coverage Basis, London. Accessible in paperback and book codecs.
Derocher, A.E. and Stirling, I. 1992. The inhabitants dynamics of polar bears in western Hudson Bay. pg. 1150-1159 in D. R. McCullough and R. H. Barrett, eds. Wildlife 2001: Populations. Elsevier Sci. Publ., London, U.Ok.
Summary. Reproductive output of polar bears in western Hudson Bay declined by way of the 1980’s from larger ranges within the 1960’s and 1970’s. Age of first replica elevated barely and the speed of litter manufacturing declined from zero.45 to zero.35 litters/feminine/12 months over the research, indicating that the reproductive interval had elevated. Recruitment of cubs to autumn decreased from zero.71 to zero.53 cubs/feminine/12 months. Cub mortality elevated from the early to late 1980’s. Litter measurement didn’t present any vital development or vital annual variation resulting from a rise in lack of the entire litter. Imply physique weights of females with cubs within the spring and autumn declined considerably. Weights of cubs within the spring didn’t decline, though weights of each feminine and male cubs declined over the research. The inhabitants is roughly 60% feminine, probably because of the sex-biased harvest. Though estimates of inhabitants measurement are usually not out there from the entire interval over which we’ve weight and reproductive knowledge, the modifications in replica, weight, and cub mortality are according to the predictions of a densitydependent response to growing inhabitants measurement. [my bold]
Kovacs, Ok.M. 2016. Erignathus barbatus . The IUCN Crimson Checklist of Threatened Species 2016: e.T8010A45225428. http://dx.doi.org/10.2305/IUCN.UK.2016-1.RLTS.T8010A45225428.en.
Lowry, L. 2015. Odobenus rosmarus ssp. divergens. The IUCN Crimson Checklist of Threatened Species 2015: e.T61963499A45228901. http://dx.doi.org/10.2305/IUCN.UK.2015-Four.RLTS.T61963499A45228901.en.
MacCracken, J.G., Beatty, W.S., Garlich-Miller, J.L., Kissling, M.L and Snyder, J.A. 2017. Last Species Standing Evaluation for the Pacific Walrus (Odobenus rosmarus divergens), Could 2017 (Model 1.zero). US Fish & Wildlife Service, Anchorage, AK. Pdf right here (eight.6 mb).
Obbard, M.E., Cattet, M.R.I., Howe, E.J., Middel, Ok.R., Newton, E.J., Kolenosky, G.B., Abraham, Ok.F. and Greenwood, C.J. 2016. Traits in physique situation in polar bears (Ursus maritimus) from the Southern Hudson Bay subpopulation in relation to modifications in sea ice. Arctic Science 2:15-32. 10.1139/AS-2015-0027 http://www.nrcresearchpress.com/doi/abs/10.1139/AS-2015-0027#.VvFtlXpUq50
Obbard, M.E., Theimann, G.W., Peacock, E. and DeBryn, T.D. (eds.) 2010. Polar Bears: Proceedings of the 15th assembly of the Polar Bear Specialists Group IUCN/SSC, 29 June-Three July, 2009, Copenhagen, Denmark. Gland, Switzerland and Cambridge UK, IUCN. http://pbsg.npolar.no/en/conferences/
Rode, Ok.D., Regehr, E.V., Douglas, D., Durner, G., Derocher, A.E., Thiemann, G.W., and Budge, S. 2014. Variation within the response of an Arctic high predator experiencing habitat loss: feeding and reproductive ecology of two polar bear populations. World Change Biology 20(1):76-88. http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.12339/summary
Rode, Ok. D., R. R. Wilson, D. C. Douglas, V. Muhlenbruch, T.C. Atwood, E. V. Regehr, E.S. Richardson, N.W. Pilfold, A.E. Derocher, G.M Durner, I. Stirling, S.C. Amstrup, M. S. Martin, A.M. Pagano, and Ok. Simac. 2018. Spring fasting habits in a marine apex predator gives an index of ecosystem productiveness. World Change Biology http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.13933/full
Smith, T.G. and Sjare, B. 1990. Predation of belugas and narwhals by polar bears in nearshore areas of the Canadian Excessive Arctic. Arctic 43(2):99-102. DOI: https://doi.org/10.14430/arctic1597
Stirling, I., Lunn, N.J. and Iacozza, J. 1999. Lengthy-term tendencies within the inhabitants ecology of polar bears in Western Hudson Bay in relation to local weather change. Arctic 52:294-306.
Earlier GWPF movies on the Arctic, polar bears and walrus
“Wholesome Polar Bears, Much less Than Wholesome Science” — a 2014 interview
with Dr Susan Crockford. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Eg7R2GYvQz8
“The Walrus Fuss – Walrus haulouts are nothing new” — On the 2014
story that a big walrus haulout was an indication of local weather change.
“A Transient Historical past of Arctic Angst” — 2016. Dr David Whitehouse provides
an outline of Arctic sea ice alarmism within the local weather debate.
“Polar Bear Scare Unmasked: The Saga of a Toppled World Warming
Icon”. – 2017. Dr Susan Crockford argues that using the polar
bear as a logo of local weather change has no foundation in details.
“GWPFTV – Susan Crockford – The Loss of life of a Local weather Icon.” — Susan
Crockford explains why the polar bear not serves as an icon of
local weather change. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XCzwFalI8OQ
“State of the Polar Bear Report 2017” — Overview of the the GWPF’s
State of the Polar Bear Report.
“Dr Susan Crockford — White Lie: The Merciless Abuse of a Ravenous Polar
Bear” — 2018. A response to the photographs of a ravenous polar bear used
by campaigning organisations to advance their agenda.
“Netflix, Attenborough and cliff-falling walruses: the making of a
false local weather icon” — A response to the WWF/Netflix campaigning
documentary which falsely claimed that walrus populations have been
affected by international warming.
“The reality about Attenborough’s falling walruses” — 2019. An replace
to the story of the false claims within the WWF/Netflix documentary.
“Susan Crockford: No local weather emergency for polar bears” — 2019. Dr
Susan Crockford argues that polar bears are usually not as susceptible to sea
ice loss as campaigners declare.
“Susan Crockford | The Polar Bear Disaster That By no means Occurred” –
2019. A lecture by Susan Crockford on polar bear science and her
expertise of difficult orthodoxy in academia.
“Falling Walrus: Attenborough Tacitly Admits Netflix Deception” –
2019. How the BBC’s Seven Worlds One Planet episode on walrus and
polar bear reveals that the WWF/Netflix Our planet eposide misled