Reposted from the Cliff Mass Climate Weblog
Friday, February 14, 2020
A Weak El Nino Transitioning to La Nada
In the course of the previous few months now we have moved from close to impartial situations (La Nada) to a weak El Nino (hotter than regular temperatures within the central and japanese tropic Pacific)–offering some insights into the climate later this 12 months.
Wanting on the temperatures within the central tropical Pacific (the Nino three.four space), the water temperatures have moved from a bit cooler than regular in September to round .5C above regular. It is a minimal El Nino.
Subsequent, viewing water temperatures in an east-west slice of the Pacific Ocean–from the floor to about 300 meters beneath the floor– present hotter than regular situations (purple/orange colours).
The commerce winds have weakened as effectively–one other marker of El Nino. It is a very weak, minimal El Nino. And the energy of the sign is necessary.
Final month, the NOAA Local weather Prediction Heart was projecting that this spring we might transfer into impartial territory (tropical sea floor temps inside .5C of regular)– see beneath
And the January prolonged forecast from many modeling techniques (see beneath) usually signifies impartial situations, barely weighted in the direction of the nice and cozy facet. The newest European Heart mannequin is comparable.
The important thing level in all this, is that with a weak El Nino grading to impartial (regular, La Nada) situations within the tropical Pacific, there isn’t any motive to count on situations in our space to be totally different from regular. They might be, in fact, however the tropical Pacific won’t be weighting the atmospheric cube in any path (one thing sturdy El Nino or La Nina would do).
What concerning the BLOB? How is it going? The newest sea floor temperature anomaly map (distinction from regular) exhibits cool water instantly off the West Coast, however proof of a weak blob (1-2C above regular) off the coast. Let’s name it a junior blob…a lot, a lot weaker than the one we skilled a couple of years in the past.
February 16, 2020 in El Nino Fundamentals. Tags: El Niño, La Nina